Reference is directed to missive penned by Prof Andre Brandli of a university in Germany (Nov 29 in Stabroek News) and other epistles he penned in otehr publications. The Professor errs in his attempt at calculating the voter turnout out rate of the 2020 elections.
Prof Brandli’s main point is that voter turn out rate (VTR) should be calculated on the basis of NUMBER OF VOTING AGE POPULATION RESIDING IN THE COUNTRY AND NOT ON THE TOTAL REGISTERED VOTERS ON THE LIST. This means that he has eliminated all registered voters who are living and working overseas. This is a major constitutional aberration. The Hon Chief Justice has ruled that overseas registered cannot be removed except in cases of death and a few other reasons.
He also makes another error — he includes all adult population (18+) as the denominator. What if some adults, and there were many, not interested in voting are apathetic, and did not register to vote? There were many of those in all elections.
If a voting age person is not registered, he/she cannot vote and therefore should not be a part of the denominator. The Prof’s base and therefore his calculation is flawed.
All Caricom countries inclusive of Guyana, and even other matured democracies like the US, voter turn out rate is measured by those actually voting against the number of registered voters. No Caricom or any other country calculates the voter turn out rate by using the voting age population as the base. The voters’ list is always used as the base. Thus, as an illustration, if 100 Guyanese or Trinis or Bhajans or Americans are registered, and 80 cast their votes, then the turn out rate is 80%. This calculation has nothing to do with total voting age population.
The Professor is engaged in some mathematical theorizing or hypothetical situation in using adult population (18+) as the base which is wrong. In academia, one can offer postulations and theories in academic papers for journals. One can conjure up a theory or argument and try to fit data to support that theoretical framework or hypothesis. But it is not compatible with reality in Guyana or in line with the constitution on voting requirements. Gecom cannot exclude eligible Guyanese on the voters’ list, whether resident in Guyana or elsewhere.
Utilizing his formula, it would be interesting to find out how the professor would calculate the turn out rate for the 2015 or even 2011 elections that were won by the PNCR led coalition. It would probably by over 99%. I would like to know in the two cases, if the votes were padded? Were there impersonation of voters?
If we accept the professor’s proposed mathematical postulation in calculating voter turnout, we will plunge into an abyss, re-writing history of all previous election results, without any justification.
Voter turnout rates for democratic elections as made available by Gecom have followed historical pattern of computation and have utilized the formula I presented above. It seems therefore that voter turn out rate (VTR) presented and argued by the esteemed Attorney General and respected Dr Tara Singh (in letters published in SN) is correct.
The Professor, in conjuring up his number theory of eligible voters, is trying to make a case that the current voters’ list is bloated.
Bloated or not, the list is what it is of all eligible adults are on it. From all accounts coming out of Gecom, the electoral list is not bloated with non-voters. Gecom cannot remove the dead without a death certificate. And it cannot remove living Guyanese, regardless where they reside, from the list.
One does not know the reason why a person is out of jurisdiction— permanent migration, sickness, temporary work, etc. What if a person is removed from the list and he or she decides to return home and wishes to vote. Their right would be violated. The election could be vitiated. It is public knowledge that hundreds retired GDF and police officers returned home and voted in 2015 and 2020. If they were not on the list, they would have been disenfranchised and the election potentially vitiated.
Residency is not a requirement for being on the list or voting after one is registered. All eligible Guyanese are entitled to registration as a voter and to be on the list. The court made that point ample clear in its ruling on that issue three years ago. Once someone is registered, the person remains on the list till death is certified.
On concern of the potential for fraud of ballots being cast in the names of those out of jurisdiction, there was no verifiable reported case of impersonation of voters. The Professor’s invention of a new formula to calculate voter turn out rate to rationalize his claim of voter fraud at the 2020 elections is pure speculation and designed to shift focus away from the blatant attempt of a political party and its GECOM collaborators to steal the 2020 elections.
Yours truly,
Dr. Vishnu Bisram