Guyana should build a strong partnership with India and avoid entanglement with China that has been challenging USA’s global dominance. Guyana’s relations with USA and that is balanced by wise global partnership with other countries friendly with America will shape the destiny of our three quarters million people.
For small developing countries like Guyana, geo-political alliance with a far away major power should be avoided if it will incur the wrath of the dominant power in the region. That has been the realpolitik, pragmatism of international relations and foreign (political and economic) policy of a developing country since end of WWII. Small economies can’t influence world politics, but international politics can influence and shape their politics. Small economies don’t make international rules but simply obey them for survival. Thus, unwise foreign policy alliances could significantly impact our future economic growth, security environment and geopolitical and geo economic interests. That is political realism. Every government of a small or economically weak country knows the lessons of political realism if the leaders study or understand international relations — stay far from alliances that will challenge the dominance of the power house of the region.
There is no doubt which is the dominant power in the great Caribbean and American region. Several governments of countries in the region, including succeeding governments in Guyana, tried to challenge the mighty USA and paid a hefty price. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the USA has been the world’s only superpower. China, flush with trillions of American dollars of surplus, has challenged USA’s global influence over the last decade. The USA has not taken too kindly of being ‘played’ (being taken for a ride) by governments of developing countries and to being challenged. A new kind of Cold War has been boiling with China. Guyana, located in America’s backyard and with more of her population living in USA than in Guyana itself, has to be cognizant of the implications of getting tied up in this new Cold War or tie ups with any challenger of American hegemony.
Given new realpolitik of an emerging cold war between the US as leader of western powers and China, Guyana’s interests will be better served in a partnership with the West and or with a large emerging economy like India. India’s national power has increased dramatically, making it a force with international system-shaping capabilities. India has a huge $600 billion surplus and has been offering generous loans to many countries including Guyana. In addition, Indian companies have been investing globally including in the USA and Guyana. A new assertive India is being courted by western powers and by Australia and Japan for politically strategic and economic reasons. India is being hailed globally as the economic powerhouse for the next couple decades as China has cooled off.
India has the highest growth rate among large economies doubling that of USA. Instead of seeking alliances with powers in Middle East and those that seek to challenge American hegemony, Guyana should consolidate economic partnership with India which is projected to be the third largest economy before the end of this decade. Its GDP is almost four trillion dollars and it is projected to exceed $5 trillion by end of decade. Modi wants to make it an $10 T economy by 2050. Guyana and India can work together in newer economic and security areas such as cyber and financial domains as well as in health and infrastructure. Such a partnership will not irk the USA which itself is pursuing trade and security treaties with India. The Indian PM was treated like a rock star in Washington. No world leader in America’s recent foreign relations, was given such warm treatment as Modi. America has also tied up with India on economic and security fronts. In addition, agreements have been signed on space, health, investment, aviation, and cyber security sectors. The UK, Japan, France, Germany, Australia, and other large economies, taking the lead from USA, have been courting India for security and economic tie ups. The major economies have recognized that ignoring the global consequences of a rising India’s power is unwise. India is now one of US and West’s closest friends, a reversal from a few years ago. The U.S. and the wealthy West want India to be on their side in strategic security conflicts.
Guyana can be Washington’s strategic partner in the region. So why court or have strategic tie ups with powers that raise alarm bells in Washington. Why not play it safe and build a strong partnership with India! As India grows as a whole, so would Guyana in any tie ups. As an illustration, India has built the most highways and rail networks over the last two decades. India has been building one section of our new highway in record time. India has been very successful in reducing poverty by half over the last thirty years from 50 percent in 1991 to twenty percent today. She can help us to reduce poverty rate well below the current 45% estimated by international financial institutions. Partnership between the two nations will serve more of Guyana’s as well as the global good. A new partnership with India, already inextricably linked, will be further strengthened by the warm bonds of family and friendship that have existed between the peoples of both territories for 175 years. And as noted above, India is not a threat to but a new friend of the West.
Countries in USA backyard ought not to tie up with any power that the US views as a challenger to its global dominance. Contrary to what others may think, Pax Americana is not dead. Several leaders in the 1960s thru 1980s made such pronouncements and found out the consequences. As a reminder, without US intervention in 1964, 1992, 2015, and 2020, there would have been no change in government and democracy would have been dead in Guyana. Pax Americana secured democracy in Guyana in 2020. Nationalistic hubris or officious comments denigrating the American dollar will not help Guyana.
Guyana must avoid an external engagement with a power that is seen as a threat to America. Otherwise, it would be a strategic blunder that could see a reversal in democratic gains.