India, the world’s largest democracy, concludes voting for its National Assembly or Lok Sabha for 543 seats on June 1 in the seventh and final phase of balloting. There is keen interest among Indo-Trinidadians and other Indo Caribbean people in the Indian diaspora in the elections as obtained in interviews by this writer in Trinidad, Suriname, and globally. This writer was in India for the 2014, 2019, and again for the 2024 elections and predicted a Modi wave in all three elections.
The first phase of voting in 2024 was on April 19. Modi is projected to win his seat and the general elections based on the analysis of this writer. Incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi is on the ballot for his third term having won in 2014 and 2019. He is expected to win his seat of Varanasi by a landslide. Varanasi is home to some of India’s holiest shrines for Hindus. Thousands of Hindus from Trinidad visit the city annually going back for the last fifty years; many Trinidadians also studied in Varanasi including Pandit Raviji Maharaj and Pandit Indranie Rampersad. As they and this writer can attest (from a dozen visits and guest lectures at the prestigious Benaras Hindu University over the last decade), the holy city has been transformed with major developmental projects including highways, fast trains, modern rail stations, airport and more since Modi became its parliamentary rep and Prime Minister in May 2014. This writer polled constituents on Modi’s performance. Modi has been the best parliamentary rep of his constituency since elections were first held in the early 1950s, and in fact he has been the best rep of all constituencies over the last decade. He has been a fantastic rep bringing back memories of effective representation of MPs in Trinidad like Trevor Sudama in Oropouche, Ramesh Lawrence Maharaj in Couva South and Tabaquite, Chandresh Sharma of Fyzabad, Rushton Paray of Mayaro, among a few others.
Modi is no stranger to Trinidad having visited twice before he became Chief Minister of Gujarat (2002 till 2014) for Hindu and Ramayana conferences. He was to re-visit Trinidad (and Guyana) in November 2018 following a G-20 summit in Argentina but the trip was cancelled at the last minute because of the need to rush to Delhi for a political emergency. This writer has been lobbying for a Modi visit to the Caribbean (Trinidad, Guyana) for a summit with Caribbean leaders. It is hoped that it will happen in 2025 or 2026 if Modi wins re-election. Since Trinidad, Guyana, Suriname holds elections in 2025 with incumbents pre-occupied with re-election, a Modi visit is unlikely unless it takes place early 2025. It is possible for the PM to visit later this year when he attends the G20 in Brazil. The PM of T&T and other CARICOM leaders should invite the Indian PM for an official visit to strengthen relations with the region. India has been very generous with all kinds of assistance from health to loans to infrastructure to technology, among other areas.
Will Modi win re-election? Most opinion polls forecast a Modi-victory. But the margin of victory is questioned. The incumbent BJP that Modi leads claims it will win 350 seats and its NDA partners another 50 for a total of 400 of the 543 seats. Polls suggest substantially less. The opposition Congress party says it will win enough seats to form a coalition government with its alliance partners called the INDIA bloc. Some 272 seats are needed to form a government. BJP is likely to get more than that on its own. However, a lower turnout than in 2019 of some eight percent has been a cause of concern amount political analysts. There are 968 million voters on the roll with turnout about 62%.
Indian Trinibagonians have been keenly following the election campaign in India and are anxious about the outcome. Most want Modi and the BJP to win another term because of major transformation of India under his ten years tenure. Also, Modi has deepened relations with the Caribbean and Latin states increasing developmental aid and scholarships for studies of Caribbean nations at Indian universities. As an Indologist and India watcher, this writer received countless calls and text requests from Trinis for an assessment of the outcome of the Indian elections. This writer visited India multiple times annually over the last twenty-five years. Based on multiple visits last year and this year and informal polling with voters in various parts of the country, it is the view of this writer that BJP is projected to win over 300 seats. Several seats are expected to be close especially in northern constituencies and can go either way for the BJP or the opposition. The opposition has not presented itself as a strong alternative and lacks a likeable credible leader who could pose a threat to Modi. The BJP is very strong in the north and will get an overwhelming majority of the seats in northern states and a small number of seats in south where the opposition is very strong.
Unlike Trinidad, a candidate can run for two seats but can only hold one if victorious in both resigning the other. The de facto opposition leader Rahul Gandhi contested two seats and likely to win both based on projections from this writer. Unlike in Trinidad, voters can reject all the candidates for a seat – none of the above or NOTA is an option. Also, unlike in Trinidad, voting is electronic with ballots casted in machines. The machines in the different polling precincts will be opened on June 4 to reveal the automatic count in each for each candidate and totaled in each constituency to decide the winner.
Based on informal polling of this writer and polls published by other pollsters, Modi should return as PM with Indian Trinidadians and other Indo-Caribbean people eagerly awaiting his visit to the region.