Based on trends of votes coming in from the state of Georgia, Donald Trump is likely to prevail by a squeaker, triggering a recount. The military ballots would make the difference. A Biden victory cannot be ruled out but Trump likely to emerge ahead.
As it stands by Thursday evening, Trump leads by 12,800 votes with 47,300 votes remaining to be counted. These are mailed in ballots that take longer to be counted. They have to be verified and then processed before they can be counted.
Biden is leading in mail in ballots by 58% to 42%. Of the areas where the votes are yet to be counted, trends show Biden polling some 60% and Trump 39%. The other candidates get 1%.At 60%, Biden will get 28,300 and Trump 19000. The difference in the margin is approximately 9,000. With Trump currently leading by 12,800, Biden cannot catch up or overtake Trump. Thus, it seems Trump will win a Georgia by a few thousands. However, if Biden were to get 64% to 65% of the 47,200, he would edge out Trump. Some 64% is possible for Trump. With the margin so close, the military ballots will determine the winner. Military ballots have until Friday evening to arrive at the counting place. Those ballots, a maximum of 8,800, will be counted a day later, and the gap between the two will be much less than that amount. The military normally prefers Republican over Democrats. But anything is possible.
Because of the narrow difference in votes between the two candidates, there is an automatic recount. This would be undertaken next week. So there would be no declaration for Georgia until several days.
Biden does not need Georgia to win the Presidency. He can win with Arizona and Nevada, in both of which he is leading. If that trend holds, he would get 270 electoral votes, a majority. The contest is over. But Trump is requesting recounts in Wisconsin.
Biden also has a chance in North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Trump must win Georgia and Pennsylvania for a path to re-election. It does not look good for him.Based on my analysis of trends, Biden will win the Presidency even without Georgia, NC, and Pennsylvania because he is winning Arizona and Nevada.
