Dr Noel Kalicharan, former lecturer at UWI, and currently commissioner of T&T Elections Commission, presented his analysis of the results of Guyana’s 2020 General Election, based on Statements of Poll (SOPs) from Gecom and the opposition. Kalicharan was an observer in Guyana. Kalicharan seemed to have recognized the electoral machinery and inner workings of Guyana elections commission more than lay observers. Guided by institutional knowledge and experience, he was able to accurately pronounce very early, more than many other observers, on the accuracy, integrity and credibility of the electoral process. It is amazing that he virtually predicted the results to almost its arithmetical accuracy from a recount.
He calculated that the PPP/C won the election by 15,801 votes over the incumbent APNU+AFC coalition. The recount in Guyana has the PPP/C ahead of APNU by 15,416 votes, a difference of 385, virtually nil statistical significance for those of us who study statistics or conduct polling exercises. Given that there were about 2300 polling stations, that’s an average difference of one vote for every six polling stations. That’s a remarkable level of accuracy given that, in any recount, some votes that were counted previously are now rejected and some that were rejected previously are now accepted.
While Kalicharan’s accuracy is noted, he really showed that the result of the Guyana elections was available all this time, for anyone who cared to look who was interested in the truth. The result was in plain sight while APNU/AFC forces made strenuous attempts to distract from the truth trying to hoodwink the world with a conflicting and false narrative.One also wonders what the APNU/AFC had to gain by “hiding” their Statements Of Polls (SOPs) when asked by the media and observers. All the parties and observers had copies of SOPs that were posted outside of polling stations. Any SOP held by APNU/AFC would have had to match GECOM’s and those of the other parties. Kalicharan’s calculations and GECOM’s recount were so close that they lend credence to the PPP/C’s claim that the posted SOPs were genuine from the start.
Long before Mingo’s aborted count of March 14 and fraudulent declaration, since March 3 morning, APNU/AFC would have known they lost the elections. With all the SOPs in its possession, it needed only a few hours work to determine the results. But instead of conceding defeat, they spent their time devising a plan to thwart the will of the people. Every action since March 3, especially Mingo “falling sick” on March 4, there was a carefully orchestrated plan of fraud.
Widely reported were the several attempts to defraud the electorate by persons within the Gecom machinery and on the outside. The hierarchy of the ruling party also tried to perpetrate massive fraud at various stages post election day. These led to numerous court challenges. Interventions by Caricom and tremendous international pressure culminated in a national recount exercise. Even during the recount, various machinations were employed to prevent the will of the people. Eventually, the recount concluded and the Chair ordered the Chief Election Officer to make a declaration of the valid recount votes. Even the declaration is before the court.
Soon, an official declaration will be made and a swearing in of the President, Dr. Irfaan Ali will take place.
Kalicharan is saluted for his eloquence and integrity and the role he played as an observer in Guyana. His experience in elections no doubt was brought to bear on the scrutiny of voting on Guyana and in exposing fraud.
Dr. Vishnu Bisram (Pollster)