Letter writer Joel Bhagwandin is commended for providing net immigration data in “Immigration data on Guyana shows net increase in Guyanese arrivals over departures” (published in Guyana’s SN Oct 8). Economist Dr. Ramesh Gampat delivered a brilliant analysis of the data critiquing Bhagwandin’s hypothesis (Oct 9) of positive net migration. Gampat, like me, have serious issues with the data of people migrating and returning to Guyana.
Any student of developmental economics and or sociology and political science would be curious to know why this anomaly occurred – meaning a reversal of a migration trend from negative to positive, assuming the data is accurate. Bhagwandin merely presented what was given to him by the airports; not overall data for all migrants, tens of thousands of who are not registered. . The data of the two arrivals may be accurate but cannot lead to a conclusion that there is a net positive overall migration
Guyana experienced negative net migration from independence till now (or recently if Bhagwandin’s data is accurate). Why the sudden change? What accounts for this reversal of negative net migration? Several explanations can be posited. Thousands of expatriates (foreigner workers and investors) have been arriving in Guyana since 2015; many leave or are rotated. The expatriate numbers of arrivals and departures should be equalized at some point in time.
Other reasons for the reversal: Thousands of Venezuelans and Cubans arrived through the two airports. Some of the Cubans returned home while others have remained behind and have sought to make it to USA. The Venezuelans do not return to their homeland. They also remain behind or try to make it to the American border. Venezuelans from other countries fly into Timehri or Ogle and use local transport (illegal cross border) to get to Venezuela visiting families or tending to business. Caribbean Airlines flies from Caracas to POS and thence to GEO and OGLE. Many do not return to Venezuela, resulting in a net positive migration from Venezuela. Also, tens of thousands of Haitians, Africans (from Nigeria, Ghana, and other countries), and Asians (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh) arrived in Guyana to work in various sectors or move on to other countries. Immigrants (investors and workers) from China also came by the thousands and have not returned to their homeland.
The number of Guyanese re-migrants (from North America, UK, Caribbean, Suriname, French Guiana, Venezuela, Brazil, etc.) are not known. Few Guyanese are known to re-migrate permanently in Guyana especially if they had settled in USA or Canada. The above could explain the positive net immigration rate. And official data on arrivals and departures cannot lead to a conclusion that Guyanese are re-migrating or that more Guyanese are arriving than leaving. In travels and queries throughout the coast in recent weeks, it was discovered that thousands of Guyanese, exceeding 15K, left the country since 2022 as permanent residents to North America or with visitors and Business. Lawyers who deal with immigration matters in Guyana inform me that there has been a spurt in outward migration after Covid.
A positive net immigration (migration) at the two airports does not mean there is a reversal of migration from Guyana or positive overall net migration nationally as Dr. Gampat expertly explained. Thousands of Guyanese annually are known to leave the country “backtrack” to Suriname, French Guiana, and Brazil, heading up north or hoping to make it to Europe (France and Holland). And also thousands of Guyanese once residing in Venezuela have been returning home along with their descendants. That number could exceed 50K. It is estimated at 100K.
A more accurate picture of the population would be a house to house survey. Airport data of arrivals and departures by nationalities (passports) would also give accurate data on overall number of official arrivals and departures at the two international airports and who are yet to leave the country by nationality. The preceding would help academics and policymakers to know the overall net migration or immigration.