The outcome of the election in Guyana scheduled for September 1 will largely be influenced and decided by newcomer Mr Azruddin Mohamed who announced his candidacy for the Presidency on May 26. He has brought a breath of fresh air in the politics not experienced for over two decades, and a large segment of the public is attracted to him. He cannot be wished away by the other politicians and parties. He is a force to be reckoned with. Voters are gravitating towards him, and he will decide the outcome based on the number of votes or seats he receives.
Mr Azruddin, once an ally of the PPP, and who has had a fallout with the ruling party, is very popular among all segments, ethnicities, of the population. Aside from President Irfaan Ali, he is the most popular and likable political leader in the country. Ali is a populist, down to earth President. Azruddin is also a populist with a flamboyant, charismatic personality who travels around helping the poor. And that is why the election outcome will largely be determined on the amount of support that Azruddin receives or the amount he takes from PPP. He is taking support from PPP, PNC, and AFC, in almost proportional amount. Azruddin’s support does not put any party at an advantage over the other as he takes support from all of them.
Ali’s PPP is polling well ahead of other parties and likely to win. Azruddin, although he has not announced a party, has a large following. Experience revealed that a following may or may not translate into votes. If Azruddin takes significant support from PPP, there will be a minority government led by President Ali.
Azruddin is more popular than the leaders of the PNC or APNU and AFC and all the other small or minor parties. Currently, he is polling higher than AFC. And if the election is today, he is likely to win several seats, capturing disgruntled voters from PPP, PNC, and AFC, resulting in a minority government led by Irfaan. Azruddin, not the other parties, threatens PPP majority. But three months is a long time in politics. Anything can happen between now and election date.
Latest polling numbers show that PPP will win the election. The number of seats the PPP wins depends on the number of seats Azruddin party wins. It is noted that Azruddin has not announced the name of the party. The public eagerly awaits the announcement of its name. He announced he is seeking the Presidency. The constitution prohibits one from running as an independent for President. One must run as head of a party, which many leading lawyers say is unconstitutional. All countries allow independents to seek elective office.
Based on latest polling by this writer, APNU and AFC are losing seats with the PPP and Azruddin capturing them.