Guyanese in Guyana and in the diaspora are paying close attention to the US Presidential election that is just under eight weeks – November 5. The political parties in Guyana (and their race aligned supporters) are also paying close attention and American presidential expressing preference in private. They feel a victory for one candidate as President will benefit their party in Guyana. This writer engaged politicians in Guyana from the three (major) political parties as well as independent political analysts and supporters of the parties for their views and preference of the American Presidential election.
One Guyanese political party hopes Republican Donald Trump is elected President and has lobbyists working for him with the expectation to cement ties should he prevail. Another party hopes the Democratic candidate Kamala Devi Harris wins but can’t afford lobbyists although it has high ranking contacts with Democrats. While a third party also prefers the Democrats but the American presidential outcome does not matter as that party has strong contacts with both major parties at the highest level.
Guyanese are generally not very active in American politics, not as volunteers, not as donors, and not as voters. However, there are some volunteers, affiliated with two Guyanese political parties, that are with the campaigns of the two major American parties. This writer, not affiliated with the political parties in Guyana, has volunteered for one of the major American parties at every election cycle, including for Obama, the Clintons, Jimmy Carter, going back since the 1980s and has developed contacts with both major parties. A few Guyanese have donated to the campaign of their preferred candidate; most seem to prefer Kamala Devi.
One Guyanese political party hopes Republican Donald Trump is elected President and has lobbyists working for him with the expectation of cementing ties should he prevail. Another party hopes the Democratic candidate Kamala Devi Harris wins, but it can’t afford to hire lobbyists although it has high ranking contacts with Democrats in Congress. While a third party also prefers the Democrats but the American presidential outcome does not matter as that party has strong contacts within both major parties at the highest level and with both candidates. The parties in Guyana are thinking about their own self interests in Guyana rather than the interests of Guyanese Americans or the international order.
Guyanese are generally not very active in American politics, not as volunteers, donors, and voters. However, there are some volunteers, affiliated with two Guyanese political parties, that are with the campaigns of the two major American parties or candidates. This writer, not affiliated with the political parties in Guyana, has volunteered for one of the major American parties at every election cycle, including for Obama, the Clintons, Al Gore, Jimmy Carter, going back since the 1980s and has developed contacts with both major parties. A few Guyanese have donated to the campaign of their preferred candidate; most seem to prefer Kamala Devi as they feel she is better for minorities in USA.
On voting, turnout rate of Guyanese is very low, estimated at less than 50% for Presidential election and 20% in local contests and even lower in Primary elections; most Guyanese are registered as members of the Democratic Party. Anyone American at age 18 or older can register to vote in community where residing. There is more than a million Americans of Guyanese descent spread across in several states but concentrated mostly in the Northeast and Southeast. This election is expected to see a higher voter turnout among Guyanese as expressed in engagements with them in New York, Florida, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Minnesota, Massachusetts, Texas and a few other states. They feel very strong about their candidate who they want to win and plan to come out to vote for him or her. Kamala Devi will win NY and Massachusetts while Trump will win Texas and Florida, his home state. Minnesota is close but Kamala will prevail. Pennsylvania and Georgia are swing states that can go either way as are Michigan and Wisconsin where there is a small Guyanese presence; the Guyanese vote is critical in them. There are a few other swing or battleground states but the Guyanese presence is negligible.
As in Guyana, the diaspora in America is divided along Guyanese party lines in their support for the two presidential candidates. Guyanese Americans are racially polarized as in Guyana. About a third are backing Trump while the rest are supporting Kamala. Not influenced by and independent of Guyanese party (or race) politics are some Guyanese Americans who are backing Trump; they may be aligned with PPP, PNC, and AFC but are supporting Trump or Kamala Devi. The Guyanese committed to Trump are mostly Indians while those committed to Kamala are mostly Africans and Mixed.
As suggested by the above, American election is not won, as in Guyana, by popular votes nationally. Instead, there are 51 separate contests nationwide, all on the same day (with each also having early voting starting about a month before) in which the candidates vie for victories in each in order to win electoral votes (EVs call the electoral college). A winner of each of those contests is awarded EVs based on the size of its Congressional delegation that varies from 3 (Washington DC and a few states) to 54 (California being the largest); two states allow a division of its EVs based on districts in the state the candidates win. A candidate needs a total of 270 EVs out of 538 to win the Presidency. A candidate can win the most votes nationally and still lose the Presidency as happened to Al Gore in 2000 and Hillary Clinton in 2016. A candidate can also not get a majority of popular votes and still be elected President as happened in 1992 when Bill Clinton won. A high voter turnout is likely to benefit Democrats.
The poll numbers have seen a see saw in support, changing regularly over the last three months and likely to remain this way till voting day. Kamala Devi did very well in the debate last week and is expected to get a bump in the polls. The planned or attempted assassination (twice) of the Republican candidate, the latest last Sunday, will win him sympathy votes. Yet, this election is on a knife’s edge going down to the wire. The latest New York Times poll put Trump one percent ahead of Kamala Devi Harris. But the national average of several polls has Kamala Devi ahead by 3%. This is within the margin of statistical sampling error of 4%, meaning a dead heat. The outcome can go either way and the parties in Guyana as well as their supporters there and in the diaspora are keenly following the contest and also on knife’s edge cheering their candidate.