The outcome of the American election would have been known by Wednesday morning. Indo Caribbean Americans and all Guyanese and other Caribbean people at home and in the diaspora expected a close outcome. The whole world expect a close election. Most of the world cheer for Kamala Devi Harris. In India, people are split almost evenly between Indian American Kamala Devi and Trump. Trump is seen as being a better option for India as the Democrats were known to be critical of India’s foreign policy. Trump and Harris campaigned hard for the Indian votes. Trump appealed to Hindus to vote for him. He promised to build a Hindu museum in Washington DC. He also promised to grant green cards or work permits to Indians studying in USA in the STEM subjects.
Indian Guyanese are strong Trump supporters; they are not influenced by politicians in Guyana. There were Guyanese and Trini American supporters on both sides though hardly anyone actively involved in campaigning and volunteering except this writer. Trump supporters, including Guyanese, were very passionate and expected him to win.
A commentator in a local Guyana media claims that the American elections is not a dead heat and not close. He accuses the media and pollsters of manufacturing an image or public perception that the election is close. He argues that Kamala Devi Harris will win comfortably. It may be that Harris will win. But as someone who has studied polling and also conducted hundreds of polls, I do not think the media and pollsters created an image of a close American election. There was no collusion. At least no evidence was presented.
The final polls before the final day of voting on November 4 in the USA presidential elections put Donald Trump in the lead in four of seven swing states that would determine the outcome. Those findings look credible but within margin of error, meaning they could go either way. If Trump were to win four of those states, then he wins the presidency.
All the polls, dozens or hundreds of them, say the election is neck and neck and can go either way. In order for the commentator to be correct, it would mean all the media and pollsters would have had to conspire to make it a dead heat election. It is possible, though highly improbable as professional pollsters don’t engage in survey conspiracies, for a few polls to be off track through some acts of collusion. But when all polls, Republican and Democratic commissioned and independents, are saying it is a close election, then there can be no conspiracy in polling and in reporting results. Also, with all polls suggesting that Trump has made gains in Democratic ruled states, then it would be impossible to manufacture data. Polls also found that Harris has made gains in some Republican states.
The final results would have been known by midnight Tuesday night. There would be a lot of challenges to the results regardless of whether the outcome was close or not in several states. If Trump wins, there would be no challenges. If Trump trails, there would be a lot of challenges. If the margins were huge, say five percent of more, challenges would be ignored or dismissed.
The voting was expected to be close in several states besides the known seven battleground ones. Guyanese anxiously awaited results on a knife’s edge. If the results were to be challenged, then the winner may not be known for a while. It could find its way in the Supreme Court as in 2000 when the court handed the Presidency to George Bush Jr.