Irfaan will win next elections against Norton in Guyana

Election is not due until November 2025. But if an election is called soon, incumbent president Irfaan Ali will defeat opposition leader Aubrey Norton. But the government faces challenges not the least being rising cost of living, crime, allegations of corruption, unpopular Ministers and other officials, among other issues. Ali and Bharrat Jagdeo are addressing these issues.

The public is fixated on high cost of living and crime with ‘politics’ (voting) far removed from their thought. People are more concerned about rising food prices and putting food in the table than on voting and don’t want to hear about the major political parties. Voter apathy (not interested in voting in 2025) is very high and growing, affecting both PPP and PNC (APNU). Many people said they are disappointed with the three dominant parties and are fed up with voting, saying “they are all the same”. Disaffected (apathetic) voters said they would like to see entry of new political parties in the fray with the expectation that would make a difference in peoples’ lives. Poor people, over half the population, are struggling to make ends meet. Nevertheless, the ruling PPP leads the opposition in popular support with the electorate as racially polarized as in 2020 with little cross over support from one to the other party. The leader of the Opposition who is also leader of the People’s National Congress (PNC), Mr. Aubrey Norton, is very unpopular among the party’s traditional base and nationally unlike Mr. Irfaan Ali who still has strong support within the PPP’s base and enjoys national appeal. Supporters of the PNC have been gravitating towards the AFC led by Mr Nigel Hughes who has also been attracting cross-over appeal; some PNC supporters have also crossed over to the PPP, an act that is politically and financially rewarding. These were some other trends obtained from engagements of voters in late July and August by Dr Vishnu Bisram and a team of interviewers for a NACTA poll.

On polarization, it is found that some Africans, who traditionally vote PNC, have crossed over to the PPP because of Irfaan Ali’s likability and efforts to woo them. But it us too early to tell whether they will vote for the PPP cup. Hardly any Indians have expressed a preference for the PNC (APNU) although some have gravitated to AFC because of its new charismatic and charming leader Nigel Hughes. The stigma of fraud in election 2020 has turned off Indians with the disenchanted Indians saying they would rather stay home rather than vote for APNU again; some will vote for a new party. Some Africans and Mixed who are disenchanted with PNC leadership are crossing over to PPP and AFC with some saying they will vote for a new party or stay home.

Voters nationally are not pleased with Aubrey Norton’s leadership. Africans in particular are not satisfied with his leadership of the PNC party and the APNU alliance. He is facing a similar predicament that befell Robert Corbin almost two decades ago when traditional supporters rejected his leadership and went over to the AFC. If an election is called soon, the PNC will find itself repeating the result of the 2006 election when many of the party’s supporters walked away, rejecting then party leader Robert Corbin as Presidential candidate. The PNC lost several seats putting in its worst performance in its history. In 2011, the base returned when the party made David Granger leader and Presidential candidate. Granger went on to win the 2015 elections.

The current trends show that incumbent Irfaan Ali will easily win re-election as President with the PPP picking up seats providing the PNC (APNU) goes into the election separated from AFC and with Aubrey Norton as the opposition presidential candidate. Norton trails Ali and Hughes in favorabilty rating. Ali has a high positive favorabilty rating compared with Norton’s negative net ratings. If the opposition is united and if there is another likable Presidential candidate for the combined opposition, the contest will be very competitive. Ali is a populist traveling around the country effectively using massive state resources to share around and build goodwill among the population. He is retaining the bulk of the party’s 2020 support base and gaining new supporters among Africans and Amerindians with the election still more than a year away.

But many voters who cast ballot in 2020 for both major parties said they will not vote in 2025 expressing disappointment over unmet expectations, high cost of living, crime and other issues. A significant number of voters say they don’t want either major political party, PPP and APNU. They seek a new political home hoping new parties will be launched before the next general elections. Many eagerly awaited a promised decision and announcement of Glenn Lall of KN and businessman Azrudeen Mohamed to launch political parties; both have large following with the latter being seen as a folkloric hero doling out resources among the lower classes. New parties and a rehabilitated AFC may well eat into the base of both the PPP and PNC (APNU).