President Maduro of Venezuela risks toppling of his government by force with regional action should he proceed with announced plan to invade and annex Essequibo region of Guyana. Maduro ought to know that several governments in Latin America (including Venezuela) and the Caribbean experienced regime change for challenging or defying the American Monroe Doctrine or the region’s realpolitik (maintaining status quo on) pertaining to big power politics and domination. The examples are many and quite telling including in Haiti, Dominican Republic, Chile, Guatemala, Honduras, Guyana in 1953, 1964, 1992, 2015, and 2020, Panama, Venezuela in 1948, Nicaragua, Argentina, among others. Military adventurism by Venezuela into Guyana, meaning incursion to seize territory while a border dispute or controversy is before the World Court, could lead to regime change. The global community would not accept it. The OAS would not stand by and accept Maduro’s military adventurism especially when he hardly has friends in the OAS.
Maduro plans to annex territory of a sovereign state of Guyana that is peaceful and that is in compliance with ICJ. By so doing he will convert the region into a zone of conflict rather than a zone of peace. The OAS has issued strongly worded statements against Maduro’s aggression towards Guyana. He scoffs at the World Court, saying it lacks jurisdiction over the border dispute, and he despises international law.
The OAS, the USA in particular, may be goaded into sanctions and or military action against Venezuela for violating the UN and OAS charters and for threatening a small militarily weak nation should Maduro proceed to annex Guyana.
Any attempt to seize the Essequibo would be looked upon unfavorably by the global community. Such aggression would incur the wrath of America and other democratic nations, causing them to come together to confront Venezuela. The USA has national security interests in Guyana and its surroundings. Venezuelan capture of Essequibo would be rejected by America as the latter’s business and strategic interests would be affected. Natural resources come into play as Guyana holds huge reserves of oil and gas rivaling Venezuela. The USA and the West need Guyana’s energy and would not tolerate Venezuela bullying Guyana and seizing its legitimate territory especially when the dispute or controversy is before the world court. Venezuela’s transgressions could lead to sanctions by the UN and or OAS (expulsion) and eventually military action to force it to accept the status quo or the ICJ ruling that is expected soon.
The USA would be too pleased to get rid of Maduro that has been defying American hegemony in the region. He is presiding over a dictatorship and USA would like to see the rise of a democracy. The opposition would also like to rid their country of Maduro.
The opposition in Venezuela would not object to any military action against the regime to help bring about political change. The people have recognized that Maduro has ruined a once prosperous country. People are barely affording to make ends meet. Inflation is reportedly 369%. Venezuelans are fleeing to all countries including the US, Columbia, Brazil, Trinidad & Tobago, Guyana. Venezuelans are happy to live in Guyana. They praise Guyanese and the Guyana government for warm hospitality. The 30,000 Venezuelans who fled to Guyana say Maduro has impoverished their nation. They have planned an anti-Maduro rally at the Square of the Revolution, Georgetown for Sunday November 26, 2023. Maduro suppressed opposition forces and was warned that if he continues the US will sanction him.
Rather than waiting on the ICJ to render a decision on the re-opening of the Guyana Venezuela border issue that was settled in 1899 and ratified in 1890 and the two boundaries demarcated in 1905, Maduro has pre-empted the ICJ’s decision and express his intention to carry out a referendum on whether he should invade Guyana and seize 2/3 of the country.
This is a dangerous situation and the setting of a terrible precedent. If he succeeds, what will stop other bullying states from following his horrible example? The world cannot allow this and future generations to suffer because of this dictator. That is why he must be stopped.
For the peace and stability of the Caribbean and North American/Latin American region, and for the peace and stability of Guyana which now has the best opportunity ever to lift the 48% of its people who live below poverty line because of its oil wealth, the US and OAS may very well call for a regime change in Venezuela and proceed with appropriate action.