Vice President Jagdeo has been expressing confidence (he is overconfident) that the PPP will sweep the coming general elections due by November. It is widely expected sometime in October. The government has not informed GECOM to begin preparation for elections with any date in mind.
The VP said commissioned polls funded by the PPP have found that his party has a commanding lead over the opposition. Opinions surveys conducted by this writer in January and again in April and ongoing snapshots put the PPP ahead, heading for a landslide victory although many among its traditional base are not pleased with governance and the way government has handled their security.
The divided opposition does not pose a challenge to the PPP. A combined opposition led by a respectable leader will give the PPP a serious run. A combined opposition was posing a challenge to the PPP until the period of racially targeted violence in mid-April that drove disgruntled Indians back to their traditional base. Africans have also returned to their base following the Adriana Younge tragedy and the police handling of it.
The opposition PNC lacks the support and attractive leadership to unseat the PPP. And the AFC lacks the number to defeat the two parties although a coalition of opposition parties led by a credible, respectable leader minus the PNC that is led by Aubrey Norton could topple the PNC as the official opposition. Simona Broomes and Terrence Campbell have attracted a following that could put them in parliament. ANUG, WPA, and other minor parties are also in the fray but would need a joinder list to gain representation in parliament.
A leader who could also pose a challenge to the PPP and PNC is Azruddin Mohamed who has a serious following in all villages and towns in all regions. He is a populist not seen in the country since the rise of Cheddi Jagan and Forbes Burnham in their youths during the 1940s, 50s and 60s. Glenn Lall also has a following who have been encouraging him to contest elections; voters have been calling for community meetings with the KN publisher. Many voters would like Azruddin Mohamed and Glenn Lall to team up under a new party to contest the elections; such a combination will pose a serious challenge to both major parties. Both have shown some interests in politics and have toyed with the idea of a political movement, but neither one has announced any intention to launch a party and contest elections this year. That is the combination, or even going their separate ways, that the public will be watching. Other political figures and minor parties are struggling for traction. A movement that could appeal to people who want to migrate to America or Canada or promote close relations or some kind of alliance with one or the other countries or even both could win over many voters.
As of now, all factors being equal, the PPP is coasting to victory whenever the elections are called unless the opposition is united under an acceptable credible leader. Will Azruddin and Glenn unite as is the wish of supporters? Will they entertain the thought of joining with the other opposition figures and parties? Azruddin and Glenn have indicated they will not join with PNC or APNU and AFC. The ruling PPP has stated that it will contest the elections with its Civic Alliance that it has been doing the rounds since 1992.