The latest findings from an ongoing survey being conducted by Dr Vishnu Bisram for NACTA reveal that Opposition Leader Aubrey Norton is trailing other potential Presidential aspirants, making his candidacy as President for the coalition untenable and unviable. The coalition will lose support. The poll is being conducted by Vishnu Bisram interviewing adults to represent the demographics of the population. Dr Bisram has Benn conducting polls in Guyana since the 1980s.
The poll finds that President Irfaan Ali is way ahead in popularity (favorability) ratings against an opposition Presidential candidate Aubrey Norton. If an election were called now, Irfaan would canter to victory over Norton assuming he Norton is the Presidential candidate and assuming potential undeclared contender Azruddin Mohamed is not running.
The poll findings indicate that like Irfaan, Azruddin is very popular among all demographics of the country, placing him as among the most popular (potentially political) figures in the country. Other potential contenders (of small or new parties), except KN publisher Glenn Lall, Carl Greenidge, Nigel Hughes, Terrence Campbell, and Ubraj Narine, are not so well known and do not have high favorability ratings and have almost zero traction, suggesting they will not be able to garner enough support for a seat. The public feel the small parties would be better off merging with the known parties and or combining in a united force or in a ‘joinder list’.
The poll reveals that Irfaan, Azruddin, Greenidge, Glenn, and several other figures have higher favorability and lower unfavorable ratings than Noron. The poll shows that Norton has low favorable numbers and high negatives compared with Irfaan and Azruddin who have high favorable and low negatives. Norton has an overall negative favorability rating when compared with others; he has nil support among Indians. In contrast, Indians, the business community, in particular, speak positively about Greenidge and Campbell. Carl Greenidge and Terrence Campbell enjoy positive net ratings as do Ubraj Narine, and Glenn Lall. However, several respondents, especially in the rural areas, have no opinion of Campbell and Ubraj Narine saying they don’t know much about the duo as compared with other national figures. Greenidge, Azruddin, and Glenn are well known nationally. But all of them trail Irfaan who has presented himself as a likable, grounded, shrewd populist who has been effectively using his office to expand his political appeal and base of support. The President is the most popular nationally among all of them.
Norton’s favorability or likability rating is below surface unlike those for Irfaan, Azruddin, and Glenn and for Greenidge, Hughes, Campbell, and Ubraj Narine, among a few others, all of who have higher favorability ratings than the official opposition leader and are acceptable as Presidential contenders. Norton is very unpopular even among PNC supporters and has zero support among swing voters. Were Norton to lead the combined coalition opposition into the 2025 general elections due by November, the coalition is projected to lose seats from the current 31 it holds. Irfaan, who is the most popular candidate in the ruling party, is projected to make gains from the PNC. And were Azruddin Mohamed to form and lead a political party to contest the coming elections, his party will win seats taking support from both PNC and PPP.
The poll’s findings reveal Carl Greenidge, Nigel Hughes, and Terrence Campbell would do far better as Presidential candidate for the opposition than Norton. Were PNC (APNU) and AFC to contest the election separately, PNC would lose seats to AFC, but the former will win more seats than the latter, returning Norton as opposition Leader and Irfaan as President. AFC will make gains as happened in 2006 taking seats from PNC. And if AFC were to unite with other mini parties, that combination or alliance would give PNC (with Norton as Presidential candidate) a run for its money on which party will win more seats to become the official opposition.
Azruddin Mohamed is easily the most popular political figure in opposition to the government or President Ali, but he has not declared whether he will form a party and run for the Presidency. His rise in popularity has not been observed as a phenomenon since the rise of Jagan and Burnham challenging the colonial rulers some seven decades ago. He will give the ruling party stiff competition should he decide to run. Glenn Lall also has political traction, but like Azruddin he has not declared his intention to seek elective office. The lower and middle classes view both Azruddin and Glenn as good genuine leaders who care about the masses.
