An ongoing survey being conducted by this writer for NACTA finds mixed feelings on the selection (or planned pick) of most incumbents seeking re-election from both the ruling PNM and opposition UNC camps. Incumbency could be a critical factor in voter turnout for the April 28 election (and the outcome) as apathy is widespread with voters complaining about the representation (performance and likability ratings) of most incumbents irrespective of party affiliation.
On the UNC side, many party supporters in Mayaro, Tabaquite, St. Augustine, among other seats, said they will withhold their votes if certain incumbents are (or aren’t) selected. They poll finds that Opposition Leader Kamla Persad Bissessar, Dr. Roodal Moonilall, Rushton Parray, Anita Haynes and a few others have favorable ratings with voters saying they should be back in the line up. Parray has one of the highest performance and likability ratings among opposition MPs. Voters from across party lines feel Parray and Anita Haynes should be returned to parliament; also, almost every UNC supporter feels Parray and Haynes should be chosen as nominees for re-election. Non-selection of Haynes and Parray could divide UNC base nationally as a significant number of supporters said they will withhold their vote if Parray and Haynes are not returned as candidates in their constituencies.
In Mayaro, Parray leads PNM candidate Beatrice Bridglal 60% to 39% with 1% other. Mayaro is standing firm with Parray. If rejected as UNC candidate, many constituents said they will not vote. And were he to run as independent, the outcome could be a toss up giving the PNM a chance to capture it. Parray’s non-selection could also result in fall out in other constituencies, the marginals in particular, as he is liked nationally by many UNC supporters.
The names of several UNC MPs were mentioned for retirement as they would hurt the party’s electoral prospect. It is felt that those with allegations and scandals over their head should not be returned as candidates. Several don’t have positive reviews; new faces will be better than the incumbents. UNC supporters stated that Jayanti Lutchmedial, Vasanth Bharath, Kevin Ramnarine, and a few others should be offered to contest a traditional seat as they will bolster the prospects of the party. It is the general feeling nationally, even among PNM supporters, that if UNC puts up prominent, credible candidates, in the mold of a Devesh Maharaj (St. Jospeh) and a Dr Michael Dowlath and reach out to the smaller parties (like HOPE, COP, NTA, etc.) for an alliance or accommodation, the PNM could find itself in difficulty in the marginals.
On anti-incumbency, voters bemoan some offering themselves for re-election. Several in the UNC have negatives hanging over their head. It is the view of constituents and voters nationwide that those MPs with scandals over their head should not be offered a seat.
The poll finds that Stuart Young, Esmond Forde, Penelope Beckles, Colm Imbert, Foster Cummings, Roger Munroe, Persad-Bissessar, Parray, Moonilall, Haynes, among a few other MPs are praised for efforts to improve everyday lives of constituents. Opposition MPs, as opposed to their ruling counterparts, have limited resources to service constituents. Moonilall is rated as among the best debaters in the country.
The poll finds that although those chosen for re-election will not encounter difficulty in winning traditional ‘safe’ seats, they are not exciting constituents with lower turnout projected and their winning re-election with less support than in 2020. Some incumbents are extremely unpopular, and voters are pleased that a few are not seeking re-election. Voters would have preferred to see the back of more of them. It was smart politics for Dr Rowley to demit office, boosting the electoral prospect of the PNM. Voters would have liked to see more new faces in PNM camp, giving the party a near completely fresh look aside from the mere change of the Prime Minister and the appointment of a ‘non-political’ Minister of Finance. Young demonstrated high energy on the campaign trail hugging people who displayed enthusiasm meeting him.
Everyone, supporters of all political parties, has given Dr. Vishnu Dhanpaul, a positive rating as Minister of Finance, putting faith in him turn to around the economy. Stuart Young starts out well with high favorability on the job among supporters of all parties with the public describing him as a refreshing change as the new PM.
Dr Dhanpaul is the only Minister with a hundred percent rating on likability among the appointees of last Monday’s cabinet reshuffle. Voters regret that his lame duck status does not give him time to leave any mark on the economy so as to judge his performance.
With PNM already on the go with all of its candidates in the streets pressing flesh, the selection of UNC candidates over the next two weeks will give some hint of which party will manage the affairs of the state after April 28. Right now, PNM is out front because it has ‘better’ candidates.
