Based on findings of multiple surveys conducted by this writer for NACTA from June to the end of this year, the incumbent PPP/C will easily defeat the opposition APNU-AFC combined if an election were called soon. General Elections are not due until August 2025. But whenever it is held, the PPP/C will triumph as long as Aubrey Norton remains leader of the opposition and its Presidential candidate.
The PNC has been steadily losing ground to the PPP/C ever since it elected a new leader in December 2021. Its leader, Aubrey Norton, according to the several opinion surveys conducted in June, August, October, and November, and even earlier ones, continue to lose favor with party members, supporters, and the public. The four polls combined interviewed over 2500 adults on party support and various other issues and about the performance of the President and the Opposition Leader.
The June and earlier polls revealed resounding defeat of the PNC in last June’s LGE. The PNC suffered a humiliating defeat in terms of seats at last June’s local government elections under Aubrey Norton’s leadership. The PPP won some 80% of seats.
PNC Leadership elections were due this month (December 2023) as the party is supposed to have a bi-annual Congress to choose a new executive. No date has been fixed for the overdue Congress. Almost everyone surveyed feels the PNC should immediately hold a Congress and executive elections.
The findings of opinion surveys of 2023 have been very consistent. Based on the surveys, President Irfaan Ali leads Norton by more than two to one in favorability or likeability ratings and will defeat Norton by a landslide if he were the Presidential candidate of APNU-AFC coalition. The opposition is projected to lose at least four seats if elections under Norton’s leadership.
A large majority of Guyanese expressed a positive view of Ali and a negative view of Norton. Some 76% of adults surveyed describe Norton’s leadership performances as very poor. In contrast, Ali’s leadership got a positive rating of 69%. Even traditional supporters of PNC gave Ali a higher positive rating (of two to one) over Norton, reinforcing belief among party supporters and the public that the opposition is heading for a massive defeat at the next general election unless there is a change in leadership. Roysdale Forde, Amanza Walton-Desir, Volda Lawrence, among others, were among the names mentioned who can help stem the political hemorrhaging of the PNC.