In a few days, Finance Minister Dave Tancoo will deliver the budget for the 2026 fiscal year. As usual, there will be funding shortfall to meet the planned budget. Government will inevitably resort to borrowing to cover the deficit. And another major problem in the budget and the economy will be the ongoing foreign currency shortage for imports and travel, a problem since 2016 under the Dr Rowley Administration.
How can government boost revenues without resorting to borrowing or raising taxes and increase foreign currency (American dollars)? There are no easy answers but some simple, common sensical solutions can be considered.
ExxonMobil signed a major deepwater oil and gas exploration contract in August 2025 with the Government. Investment is expected in the billions in American dollars. The probability of an energy find is high since the area is an oil (Orinoco) basin close to drilling of oil by Venezuela and Guyana. Exxon has had rapid oil discoveries in Guyana waters, just a few miles from Trinidad waters, in deepwater exploration efforts over the last seven years. Initially producing 120K bpd in 2019 in Guyana, Exxon is now producing over 850K bpd, adding billions in American dollars to the Guyana economy whose GDP/capita is rivaling Trinidad and Tobago’s when it was a mere fifth just six years ago.
If there is a find from initial Exxon Trini exploration, investment will be greater than US$22 B in a few years. The Exxon project is not expected to start until mid-2026 with the injection of a few billion dollars. The spread effects of that initial investment by Exxon will boost the economy. The government should provide incentives to Exxon to start by year end or early 2026, earlier than planned by Exxon. The injection of billions of American dollars as soon as possible will pump up the local economy, boost foreign currency availability (perhaps more than required as Guyana experienced over the last six years), add revenues to the tax coffers, and create hundreds of jobs which itself will also add to critical tax collection and give a spurt to the economy. Exxon’s investment will grow the economy.
As the government announced at the signing of the contract at the end of August, the Exxon-Mobil agreement aligns with the government’s objective to revitalize and grow the country’s energy sector. It will also bring energy security regionally and globally, provide modern technical training to Trinibagonians in energy, and create many jobs. The discovery of new oil can eventually lead to the re-opening of the oil refinery or construction of a new one, restoring jobs lost in the sector. Selling of petroleum and refined oil products like kerosene, gasolene, diesel, and other by-products will create countless jobs in addition to generating revenues as well as foreign currency. Large amounts of foreign currency can be obtained from exports (of oil, gas and refined products).
Foreign currency and large amounts of revenues (to close deficits) can also be obtained from the export of other (primarily of new exports of agro) products and luring (diaspora as well as festival) tourists through Caribbean Airlines. More tourists (not only during carnival) will result in their spending more foreign money in the economy, creating jobs, and boosting taxes. Government should promote ‘festival tourism’ like Diwali, Holi, Eid, and Easter, among others. State owned carrier CAL should offer special fares to lure the diaspora longing to or reminiscing about visiting ‘home’. Many Trinis in the diaspora and non-Trinis as well will come home for the Diwali Nagar and similar religious festivals or for family reunions. Several of CAL’s daily flights (especially from USA) are way below capacity. The relatively high fare could have driven passengers away. Festival tourism will help to fill the planes. CAL should have a fare structure to fill the planes coming into the country, and when planes are not filled, offer last minute discounts as other airlines do to increase load. Additional passengers mean not only more revenues for CAL but more taxes for the government and more foreign currency. CAL should also encourage cargo loads in its flights; Guyana exports a lot of fresh agro products. CAL should offer incentives to Guyanese exporters.
Government must also encourage exports of local produce beyond what are being sold overseas currently. The diaspora is home sick for traditional Trini produce like chaitaigne, pumpkin, eddoes, shadow benny, dasheen bhajji, fried Channa, kuchela, pepper sauce, etc . The Trump tariff has increased cost of Trini goods in USA, but they are still in demand at vegetable stores and restaurants. Trini fish can also be exported to diasporic countries. CAL should provide incentives or discounts on cargo to increase exports of Agro and fish products. PM Kamla announced that her government is in talks to address the Trump tariff.
Government must think creatively to boost foreign currency and to raise revenues without increasing taxes.
Yours truly,
Vishnu Bisram (PhD)
