According to the most recent opinion survey conducted last month by well known pollster Dr Vishnu Bisram for NACTA to gauge the general view of the voting population on PNM government and UNC opposition’s performance and electability prospect, a large majority of voters is dissatisfied with both major parties. But if a snap general election were called, the PNM will retain office as voters don’t view the UNC as an acceptable alternative option. The UNC is saddled with MPs, Senators, caretakers of constituencies and others figures who have very low likeability ratings with voters nationally.
Respondents say some of them will find it almost impossible to get a job outside of politics. The public also feels that the opposition party also lacks attractive political optics and needs rebranding, revamping, and reform to increase its chance of electability. Middle of the road, floating, unaligned voters as well as many who traditionally vote UNC said would like to see a revamped UNC with credible parliamentary candidates of repute and integrity.
Based on the trends obtained from the latest findings and from surveys conducted last year, the ruling PNM will hold on to its 20 seats in Trinidad and is projected to pick up three marginal seats held by the UNC with the possibility of a fourth, thereby winning the next general elections due by November 2025.
The polls found that the UNC is not threatening any PNM marginal seat. The UNC’s best prospect of a possible pickup would have been St. Joseph with the incumbent announcing he is not seeking re-election. But the UNC lacks a credible shadow MP there and in other marginals held by the PNM.
The NTA leader, former Police Commissioner Gary Griffith in the February and October polls was well ahead of current UNC caretaker Anil Roberts and others as potential candidate for St. Joseph. Roberts trails other potential candidates. He has limited traction that is confined to the traditional party base with other voters in the constituency and nationally saying his loud outbursts and personal attacks are a turn off and not helpful to UNC to win over floating voters. With the recent break up between UNC and Griffith’s NTA, and Griffith not likely to be the nominee, the chance of UNC winning St. Jospeh has become dimmer.
The poll finds growing anti-incumbency with a large majority of voters saying they want a change in government but not UNC in its present form. Voters prefer a new credible third-force or an amalgamation of minor parties as an alternative to the two behemoth, but none is in the making. A coming together of the small parties could pose a threat to both major parties, but such a combination is unlikely to emerge as the leadership of each is engaged in bitter, acrimonious squabble with one another. They are all vying for leadership of any alliance reluctant to another. Personal ambition among leaders prevents the formation of a third force unless a credible senior statesman in the form of a retired politician can bring them together. The names of Mervyn Assam, Winston Dookeran, Bhoe Tewarie, Ramesh Lawrence Maharaj, Nizam Mohammed, among others are making the rounds.
Based on the latest poll findings, voters, including many in the base, display an increasing disinterest in politics and a disconnect from both major parties. Voter apathy has increased from the earlier survey conducted last October. Half of the eligible voting population said they will not vote, up from 45% in October.
The findings also reveal that the leader of each major party has very low approval and very high disapproval ratings. But Prime Minister Dr. Rowley fares better than opposition leader Kamla in their respective traditional party base. The findings also reveal neither party has attracted significant cross-racial support but the PNM has attracted more Indo-Trinidadians than the UNC has attracted Afro and Mixed Trinidadians. Indo-Trinidadians don’t see the UNC returning to office with the result that many party supporters, including financiers, have been gravitating towards and embracing the PNM. The UNC does not attract similar cross over support from Afro or Mixed Trinidadians. The latter further reduces the electoral prospect of UNC capturing government whenever elections are held.
Supporters of the UNC as well as unaligned voters say Kamla Persad Bissessar served the party well in and out of government and feel the party leader should prepare it for succession before the next general elections to enhance its prospect.
The latest survey is based on interviews of 540 individuals to represent the demographics of the nation spread across the so called safe and marginal constituencies. The margin of error is +/- 4% with data analyzed at 95% confidence interval.
