According to updated findings of on going tracking survey conducted by pollster Dr Vishnu Bisram for NACTA, the April 28 election is winding down to nine marginal seats that are hotly contested between the ruling PNM and opposition UNC and coalition (partnership) in Trinidad and between PNM and TPP in Tobago. Other polls have similar findings. Of these nine, three (Moruga, St Joseph, and Tobago East) could determine which side gets at least 21, the minimum to form the government. And contrary to the claim of either side, not disrespecting the findings of their commissioned polls, there is no clear front runner going into Monday’s voting. The race is almost evenly placed with both sides at almost equal odds of winning. The two parties are neck and neck in several (swing) seats. Either one can win based on findings in the key marginal constituencies that changed hands in recent elections. Some ‘marginals’ are ‘more marginal’ than others, meaning one party is just leading and the other closely behind according to updated findings, a stunning reversal of electoral support in just a month ago when PNM had a huge lead in the marginals it held and very close in marginals held by the UNC.
The small parties like PF, NTA, and PDP are attracting support from voters disgruntled with the two major parties. Watson Duke’s PDP is taking from Augustin Farley’s TPP and not from PNM. The small parties and independents are losing all their deposits except the slight possibility in one seat.
The main issues are out of control crime, cost of living that is atrociously high and relatively low income that can’t sustain a family, loss of visa free travel to the UK, managing the economy and the energy sector, among others. Voters are upset over all of them.
The nine swing constituencies will determine which party wins the elections depending how many they retain or capture. The PNM holds six – Tobago East, Sando West, St. Joseph, Tunapuna, LaHorquetta, and Sande Grande where in the latter Roger Munroe is holding off a strong challenge from UNC Wayne Sturge. The PNM is also staving off strong challenges in several other seats as is the UNC. The UNC is defending three marginals — Moruga, Chaguanas East, and Barataria — and all three are very close that can go either way with PNM making voter in roads in all three and in a few other seats as well. Cumuto and Mayaro, held by UNC, are not under serious threat of falling. Ditto Lopinot/Bon Air West that is held by PNM and Claxton Bay/Pointe-Pierre held by UNC. All four are interesting contests.
There is a small swing against the ruling party in several seats and similarly against the opposition in a few seats it holds but not clear if these gains are enough for pick-up of seats except for one on the east-West corridor. In surveying, the partisan or aligned voters unhesitatingly and enthusiastically stated who they are voting for, but many voters are silent, reluctant to reveal party preference or undecided and some are swing voters. Their vote holds the clue of a winner in a closely fought seat and by extension the general election.
The UNC candidate is trailing in Grande and by small margins in a few other marginals. PNM has the advantage in Tobago East, but it is close, providing TPP an opportunity to capture one seat if the opposition votes were not split with PDP. The PDP is out of the race in East and Tobago West.
The findings of polling spring surprises. A month ago, it would have been a pipe dream to have such a closely fought election. The PNM was way ahead. But the momentum created by UNC leader Kamla’s selection of new credible candidates in key marginal constituencies has created one of the most astonishing poll turnarounds in the country. The UNC had trailed the PNM for years, and all of a sudden the UNC has overtaken PNM in popular support though not in seats which is what matters in the first past the post electoral system.
Now, it is almost even chance with UNC having tailwinds as voters are expressing strong feelings of anti-incumbency. Young voters will make a difference in the in the election. They are not as partisan as their parents and grandparents. Both major parties are wooing the youth vote.
Latest findings reveal PNM has managed to stem the hemorrhage in the last couple days. If a significant swing against the incumbent materializes, it could lead to seismic political change.
But current polling is clear that this election is still up for grabs by either side. Election day organization and machinery will determine the winner in the marginals and by extension the general election.
