Reference is drawn to John Mair’s “The presidential stakes updated” and “BK Tiwari’s Endorsement of Irfaan Ali for a Second Term” (Apr 19) as well as remark (Apr 17) from VP Jagdeo that PPP will win a landslide victory in the coming elections due by November.
John Mair, who lives in England, is the first analyst to place odds (chance of victory) on the electoral race. He puts Irfaan at the top in the odds with Opposition Leader Aubrey Norton nearly at the bottom. Unless one is on the ground and traveling around the country engaging people, one can’t get a true political picture of the odds in the race.
I don’t know if John Mair is on the ground. I am almost continuously on the ground surveying voters. From my perspective in continuously engaging voters all over the country, Norton is not favored for the Presidency although he is almost certain to win the Opposition Leader post for another term. But he is extremely unpopular even among the traditional base, and if all the opposition parties aside from the PNC were to unite and contest against both major parties, Norton could lose his position as Opposition Leader.
It is not brain science for anyone to draw a conclusion that the PPP will win re-election because the opposition is in disarray and there are no new credible viable alternatives right now. PPP has been effectively using resources of the state for its advantage and gaining support even among African who traditionally support PNC.
Business people want to invest in a winner who is best for the country, and they can be favored for contracts. BK Tiwari, as has other business people, has wisely allied with what he concludes is the winning horse that is best for country among the current party leaders. BK has had a long history with Irfaan. BK wants what is best for the country. PPP has governed better than PNC or the coalition.
VP Jagdeo stated he expects a landslide victory. He may not be wrong when looking at the state of the disunited opposition. Were all of the opposition united, it could be a competitive race. But PNC or APNU and AFC are entering the race separately, clearing the path for an inevitable PPP victory.
John Mair concludes that there is only one horse in the race, meaning Irfaan will win. Irfaan and Azruddin Mohamed are the most popular political figures countrywide. But Azruddin has not declared his candidacy. Only Azruddin has the capacity, charisma, and following to prevent an Irfaan landslide victory.
