The PNM leads in the latest opinion survey conducted by Nacta. The poll finds that the marginal seat of LaHorquetta/Talparo is being consolidated in the PNM camp through the ground work of incumbent Foster Cummings. It is not known if the current MP is interested in re-election and if there are challengers for his seat within his ruling party. Election is not due until another year, but it is likely to be held early since the PNM has a commanding lead in all the marginals even though the ruling party is very unpopular among voters. Voters complain there is no credible, viable alternative.
If an election is called now, the PNM will comfortably retain the LaHorquetta/Talparo seat against the UNC going into the election alone. It is becoming a safe PNM seat. However, if there is a united opposition, the PNM will face a competitive contest while still holding the seat. And if there is a huge swing against the PNM, the seat will fall as would several other marginals. However, the polls in several marginals and nationally do not detect a swing away from PNM towards the UNC. Voters are looking for a strong credible team of candidates (UNC and other opposition parties combined) to challenge the PNM; none is in the offing. A credible united opposition will sweep the elections, but the opposition is badly fractured and disunited and heading for a defeat.
The findings in Cummings’s seat are consistent with those in other marginals as well. Thus, this marginal seat and others like it in the East West corridor are PNM safe for now. This is one of several findings obtained from a survey of peoples’ views in this constituency in November.
The ongoing opinion survey, representing the demographics of the seat, is being conducted by internationally eminent pollster Dr Vishnu Bisram for NACTA. As determined by the findings of the survey, Cummings has met the pass mark (over 50% positive ratings) among all voters in his stewardship of the seat. Most PNM supporters are satisfied with his representation while a majority of UNC supporters expresses a thumbs down. He is garnering cross over support to turn the seat into a safe one for PNM.
PNM supporters say Cummings has been a good or very good MP and executive of the ruling party and that he has been in regular touch with his constituents and PNMites nationally. They feel he has improved the constituency’s infrastructure and has provided housing and resources to constituents. He routinely has been meeting with constituents. He has also addressed concerns of those in need.
However, many UNC supporters say his performance is wanting in their neighborhoods. They complain that some of their concerns like flooding and crime are not addressed. Nevertheless, UNC supporters concede that Cummings will win re-election. Activists of UNC jealously say Cummings has fortified the seat and that it will be almost impossible to capture it without a united opposition and a diverse slate of credible individuals of repute and integrity.
The PNM’s lead in this and other marginals is not surprising even though the government is unpopular with voters nationally.
The Prime Minister has less than a majority approval rating not dissimilar from Opposition Leader Kamla Persad Bissessar. Therefore, the dissatisfaction with the PNM is not giving the UNC any advantage in any swing seat. The opposition UNC has not presented itself as an attractive alternative, lacking individuals who are respected nationally by swing voters to capture marginal seats. Without retaining its four marginals and capturing at least two others, the UNC will not return to government. Based on recent surveys, UNC stands to lose up to four marginals. PNM is not under threat if losing government.
In LaHorquetta, PNM leads UNC 44% to 34% with less than 1% supporting other parties and the other voters not revealing their choice or are undecided.
