Based on latest findings of ongoing tracking polling and engagements of voters by Dr Vishnu Bisram for NACTA, the April 28 election is turning out to be a contest between the ruling PNM and opposition UNC (and its allies in Trinidad) and PNM and TPP in Tobago. The UNC is not contesting in Tobago.
Vishnu Bisram has been conducting opinion surveys since the 1980s.
The polling finds that ‘Third’ party (not in alliance with UNC) and independent candidates are struggling for traction and of ‘nuisance value’ although they could impact the outcome of contests in a few closely fought (marginal or battleground) constituencies depriving one party or the other from winning a majority of votes.
The poll finds that no ‘third’ party (outside of alliance partners) or independent candidate has significant traction to pose a challenge to the two dominant political parties in Trinidad and in sister isle of Tobago. The third parties and independent candidates lack any fighting chance of winning a seat, and worse of saving deposits except a slim possibility of Mickela Panday in Couva North seat (held by her father from 1976 thru 2010) and Watson Duke (Tobago East) constituency who may be able to retain deposits; both face an uphill task in retaining deposit. Mickela trailing Jerlean John. Duke is way behind PNM and TPP.
The poll also find that a few candidates of UNC and PNM are also projected to lose their deposits in safe traditional strongholds of the other party. A candidate needs to garner one eight of the valid votes cast in a constituency in order to retain the deposit. The Tobago People Party is the only party with a guaranteed projection of votes based on polling results to retain 100% (both seats) deposits.
Based on findings of polling in Tobago, the electoral contest is between PNM and TPP (of Augustine Farley) with Duke (of PDP) who is playing the role of spoiler preventing the candidate from the other two parties from winning a majority of votes. In Tobago West, PNM is ahead of TPP with PDP trailing way behind. PDP is losing ground to TPP, making it an interesting competitive contest on the smaller island between PNM and TPP. In Trinidad, several (marginal or battleground) seats are closely fought and could go either way. There could be surprises with the smaller parties taking some traditional votes from the two major parties.
Overall, based on projections from polling, some half of the 161 candidates will lose their deposits.
