The PPP won the 1992 general election with a margin of over 50,000 votes, in 2020 they won by just 15,000 votes despite all the progress that has been made. How can this be? Well, this prove conclusively that standard of living is not a determinant of voting pattern, and that the Opposition strategy of discrimination against Indians and taking care of its Afro support base is an optimum strategy. Simply put, to win an election, your people have to be numerically superior to their people.
In 1991, Hoover Business intelligence, a political risk analysis firm, predicted even before 1992 election that “the PNC will use its influence in the civil service and security forces to sabotage the incoming PPP.” Hoyte strategy of “making the country ungovernable” was initiated in 1998 and continued for a decade, the results, large portions of Indian villages around Buxton were emptied, record racial motivated crime wave forced Indians to flee. Burnham emptied Berbice through terror, Hoyte did the same to the East Coast. The Opposition was successful in its strategy as Indians lost their majority status, from 52% in 1992 to around 39% today. After gaining power in 2015, they sought to import Haitians and give them citizenship, a strategy Eric Williams employed in Trinidad. This would have allowed them in the near future to jettison the coalition like what Burnham did in 1973. This is what Granger said at a PNC gathering in 2017 “You have to ask yourself how did the PNC gain office in 1964. Ask yourself how did the PNC remain in office and what did it do during that period? Ask yourself how the PNC regained office in 2015 and ask yourself how would the PNC retain office after 2020? “
What is taking place in Guyana is a war of attrition, much like a game of cricket where the opposing team is cheating and the Umpire is corrupt, the only way of winning is to be a better cheater, had the Umpire (Judicial system) been fair and impartial, the cheating team would have been punished and merit will once again be the determinant of victory.
When the Opposition was in power Indians were discriminated against and opposition supporters got preferential treatment. The PPP, in its never ending attempt to appease Afros also sacrificed its base, this cannot continue without some sort of blowback, they have effectively reached the end of the cliff. Most likely, given historic trends the PPP will be out of Office in the next election. Here is a list of some appeasement gestures.
- Linden, a predominantly Afro village gets special Gov’t benefits, not available to the rest of Guyanese, this continued under the PPP.
- After the racial riots started in 1998, the PPP rewarded the striking civil workers with a 42% pay increase, this after saying the Gov’t can only afford a 3%, they then punished their supporters with a VAT to pay for it.
- The PPP allowed foreign investigators for the Henry boys, but to date no foreign specialists are allowed for Haresh or the hundreds of other Indian who were attacked.
- The PPP set up an investigation into Gov’t run death squad and refused to investigate the Opposition involvement in the Buxton uprising and riots after the 97 election.
- They violated the Constitution by signing the Hermandston Accords and Stl Lucia agreements simply because the Opposition wants it.
- They even boasted that billions will be spent on “urban programs”, in 1998.
Had Burnham, Hoyte and Corbin worked with the PPP to make Guyana a better place it would have been a significantly better country, but the Opposition would have no chance of returning to power, the Opposition will work hard to erode that margin, as one PNC supporter said last week “we will make hell for the PPP” most likely with a massive political motivated crime wave. We are already witnessing a rash of mysterious fires since the elections. The PPP will respond with a massive appeasement program to prove they’re not racists and to convert some Opposition supporters. This is the wrong strategy if the PPP wants to survive, it’s akin to throwing gasoline on a fire.
If the PPP wants to survive it must abandon its appeasement strategy, empower its supporters and marginalize the Opposition supporters, if the better cheater wins the game, you got to be that. Hoyte was faced with that similar dilemma after 1992, he chose to disregard his legacy and the goodwill he built up with Indians. Hoyte returned to his flock, “Mo Fyah, slow Fyah” put his people on a path to regain the country all the while the PPP foolishly enabled those activities. This is what I meant by saying Indian leaders and intellectuals are “useful idiots” who enabled their opponent to gain the advantage over them.
The Opposition has effectively checkmated the PPP, it’s over for them.
