Further to commentaries on the Maduro regime, the NYT (Sep 30) front page reported that President Trump Administration is making plan to topple it because of the threat it poses to USA — narco trafficking as well as geo-strategic. Other publications in Europe and Middle East have similar reports as the Times.
Maduro has a very cosy relationship with nemeses of USA including Cuba, Russia, Iran, and China; the latter country’s increasing presence in Caribbean is seen as a geo-strategic problem for America. China’s presence is a challenge to the American Monroe Doctrine. Removing Maduro is seen as weakening China and Russia’s influence in the region. Washington wants to send a clear message on outside threat posed to American dominance in the region. Action against Maduro sends a clear message to leftists in the region.
Secretary of State Mr Marco Rubio is the leading voice to remove Maduro from office in addition to dismantling the narco-criminal infrastructure. Rubio has been the driving force to oust Maduro since the first Trump term some eight years ago when he was Senator from Florida. Many Venezuelans live in Florida which is also home to the anti-communist Cubans who generally support Republicans. Rubio has been smartly playing domestic politics. He has been a savvy politician. The Times article stated that the US will escalate military pressure to try to force Maduro out. Rubio argues that “Maduro is an illegitimate leader who oversees the export of drugs to the United States, which he says poses an imminent threat to USA and the region”. President Trump stated that some 100,000 Americans died from narcotics annually.
It is asserted that because “Maduro sits atop Venezuela’s cartel network, they can argue that removing him from power is ultimately a counternarcotics operation”. In 2020, the Justice Department indicted Maduro and other Venezuelan officials on drug trafficking charges. And Rubio stated that Maduro is a “fugitive from American justice”. The American Secretary met with Venezuelan Opposition figures last May. Opposition figures. According to NYT, the Venezuelan have been speaking with American officials. Maduro is being compared with Libyan Kaddafi, Iraq’s Saddam, and Panama’s Noriega by members of Trump Administration and Members of Congress. The USA under Bish Sr toppled Noriega over drug traffic; he spent decades in American prison.
The American military presence in the region is steadily climbing from 4,500 to 6,500 with large numbers of equipment, aircraft carriers, submarine, etc. for any operations. The Venezuelans military is no match for American military technology; a small number of forces can remove him from office. The Times stated that efforts are being made to oust Maduro without resorting to force. Military action is the last resort.
Regime change will benefit Venezuelans and the region. Venezuela has vast oil reserves, larger than Guyana and in shallow water although its crude is heavier than Guyana’s. Chevron, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips invested heavily in Venezuela. Their assets were nationalized without fair compensation. They would love to see Maduro go, enabling them to recover assets. Large amounts of revenues will flow from rapid production of oil and gas. Exxon quickly developed Guyana’s oil and gas in deep waters. Exxon will perform wonders in less challenging water, producing large numbers of barrels of oil. Maduro’s departure will also give Exxon greater security to increase production in Guyana; Exxon will no longer have to worry about Maduro threatening its production. Increased production means prices for oil and gas would fall benefiting consumers. Oil production will benefit all of Venezuela as opposed currently to a small number of officials.
The problem facing Washington and Venezuela’s neighbors is what to do if and when Maduro falls. It will create chaos that Trinidad and Tobago and Guyana are not prepared to address. T&T and Guyana are not prepared to handle tens do thousands of refugees. A decade ago, government and Opposition in Guyana would have spoken out against any military action against Venezuela, describing it as imperialism. When a handful of us supported Washington against the threat of Communism in Guyana and the region, we were called imperialists. But now, politicians in Guyana have no issue with American presence in Venezuela and seeing the back of Maduro. Leftist Guyanese are no longer supporting socialism in Venezuela. And only a few leftist politicians in the region are quietly backing Maduro. Trump does not take too kindly to any regional politicians defying him. Country aid and visas are on the line.
Washington stated that force is an option to guarantee prosperity in the region. Reports said a swift handover of power in Mira Flores is being talked about. Regime change could also lead to stability on the border controversy with Guyana and perhaps stop the flow of Venezuelans into Trinidad.
Yours truly,
Vishnu Bisram
