As someone who conducts opinion surveys routinely and who is constantly on the ground as a perennial observer of politics, I am in agreement with Peeping Tom that “Third parties will not survive this year’s elections” (Jan 30) all things being the same around the time of the elections expected in November. The APNU+AFC made it difficult for third parties to win seats because of their behavior in office and their response to the defeats in the December 2018 no confidence motion and the 2020 elections. And the Asha Kissoon behavior (TNM) refusing to resign her seat has worsened the public perception of third party leadership. There is erosion in trust for third parties.
Based on consistent poll findings, none of the mini parties currently in the reckoning will win a seat as was also the case in 2020 and 2015. Under ‘a joinder list’, they will scrape one or at best two seats, the latter could have been the outcome had all the small parties pooled their votes together under ‘the joinder’. Ego prevented a coming together of all the mini parties.
Based on findings of an ongoing tracking survey, only Glenn Lall and Azruddin Mohamed have strong likeability, popularity, and following among voters (among the lower classes, unemployed, and poor of all ethnicities) for the emergence of any credible “third party” with significant support to upset the status quo. Failing their entrance into the political fray, the PPP will run away with the elections, making gains from the PNC (APNU)+AFC coalition. Neither APNU nor AFC contesting separately can defeat PPP; even together it will be an uphill task for a coalition given the power of the purse of the incumbent and its spending spree on infrastructure projects, grants, etc. The 2025 election budget puts the PPP in an advantageous position.
Peeping Tom is right that the electorate is deeply polarized. The PPP has made slight gains among Africans and Mixed. Africans and Mixed are still strongly tied to the APNU and AFC and Indians to the PPP. The bulk of the Amerindians are with the PPP. No amount of bribery has weaned over significant cross racial support. But Peeping Tom fails to capture the increasing size of non-voters – those who said they will not vote because they are displeased with the choices before them. There are many Africans and Mixed who are disenchanted with Aubrey Norton’s leadership and will stay home or vote AFC with some of its base going PPP. Indians will not vote for PNC (APNU) and certainly not one led by Norton; his 2025 budget remarks supporting the Burnham ban on foods will have worsened Indians’ feelings toward the PNC. There are many Indians, primarily Hindus and Christians, who plan to boycott the elections claiming religious discrimination. Some Indians may vote for AFC depending on its Presidential and Prime Ministerial candidates. Indians may vote for a coalition led by a highly respected individual like a Carl Greenidge, or Nigel Hughes or a prominent Indian politician or someone from civic society; the preceding names pop up again and again among the Indian business community. Greenidge has not expressed any interest in returning to electoral politics. And Glenn and Azruddin have not announced any party formation or plan to contest elections.
As Peeping Tom rightly analyzed, the PPP smartly frames the election as a contest between the bad PNC (APNU) and the PPP, reminding the electorate of all the terrible things the PNC did during its 33 years in office. PPP speakers in the budget presentations baited the PNC MPs on the food ban year after year with the opposition ignoring it. This year, the PNC leader fell for the bait, defending the ban on imports that included flour, split peas, potatoes, channa, ghee, among other foods that constituted the staple diet of Indians. Norton’s remarks have sealed his political fate in the 2025 elections.
In order to strengthen democracy and hold government accountable, third party under personable, credible, compassionate leadership is sorely needed.
