Since her narrow loss in the 2020 election a donkey load of critics has popped up to lambaste Opposition Leader Kamla Persad Bissessar. They are all braying the same tunes Kamla must resign, Kamla is a loser, Kamla is preventing the emergence of a capable leader who can beat the PNM, Kamla is keeping the PNM in power, and even Kamla is a drunkard!
I know, something is wrong with these donkeys. They don’t know their bulljol from their pelau about politics. But just for “fun” let’s quickly examine some of these donkey brays.
Let us assume for a moment that Kamla does step down this year and forget the question of who will succeed her.
Does that mean the UNC with leader X will have a significantly greater chance of winning the 2025 election than with Kamla at the helm?
I don’t think so.
I’ve been observing Trinidad politics for over 50 years, and I see no appetite for change from the group that matters, the African population of 37.5% that solidly supports the PNM and the mixed-race group of 20.5% that also support the PNM. Note that this gives the PNM 58% of the population as its base, and that is a clear majority.
What the UNC can offer up in 2025 but its 40% of the Indian population minus the 5% of Muslims, Presbyterians, and some Hindus as well who are loyal followers of the PNM over the decades are.
That would give the PNM 58% plus the 5% of the Indians, meaning 63% to the UNC’s 35%. Even if Shri Ram appears on this earth to lead the UNC, they cannot win with 35%.
I have mentioned these numbers before, and I observe all the “Kamla resign now” critics pretend they don’t see them. There can be some nitpicking about these ethnic group numbers and the assumption of 100% support from its members in the two camps, but not enough to change the fact of majority support for the PNM in the coming election.
Does anybody see any reason why significant numbers of the African and mixed-race group would desert the PNM? Does anybody see any reason why the UNC could take back their lost 5% of the Indos, which would give them only 40% anyway?
Is there a chance of the UNC under leader X mounting a coalition as Kamla did in 2010? I don’t see it.
Is there any chance of an African party coming up to split the PNM voter base? Doh make bad joke, baba.
Is there any chance of Rowley calling an early election like Manning? Rowley isn’t stupid, you know.
Could there be protests or strikes or insurrection that weaken the PNM and have Rowley warming up his escape plane at Piarco like Williams in 1970? No way.
What then is the reason for the confidence of some critics like Raymond that with Kamla gone the UNC has a serious chance of winning the 2025 election?
On the question of Kamla the loser, I note that she won her first election as opposition leader in 2010, put up a credible fight against a stacked PNM deck to take 17 seats to the PNM’s 23, and improved to 19 seats against the PNM’s 22 seats in the 2020 election. That’s a very commendable performance in an electoral system heavily stacked for the PNM with 63% of the population.
Kamla keeping the PNM in power is just arrant nonsense. The PNM is being kept in power by the votes of their members.
Kamla the drunkard is just libelous rubbish, and I am amazed that Kamla doesn’t sic her lawyers on those critics.
This anti Kamla chorus has no basis in fact or logic, and it’s not funny. It should be given the ridicule it deserves, sans humanite.