Based on latest findings from November and December of ongoing tracking poll, opposition PNC or APNU and its coalition partner AFC continue to struggle in popular support against the incumbent PPP in Guyana. The PNC has been losing ground to PPP and AFC. There is significant disgruntlement with the state of politics, resulting in voter apathy that is affecting both major political parties, the PNC more than the PPP. Thus, in terms of seats, PPP is not negatively affected.
There is a significant number of disenchanted voters who are hoping that a credible, viable ‘third force’ emerges but none is presently in the offing. Going into an election year, if called now, the PPP will crush the opposition if the alliance partners contest separately, but if united under a credible leader the election will be somewhat competitive.
PPP holds a lead over APNU-AFC alliance. The outcome of an election will largely depend on who leads an opposition alliance, if there is one, and any viable third force, if one emerges, and who is presented as leader. All of the small parties are struggling for traction and none will garner enough votes to win a seat. A combination of all opposition forces under a credible, likable leader will give the PPP a run for its money. But the probability of such a combination coming to life is nil. Thus, the PPP will romp home with a comfortable majority picking up seats from PNC; AFC is also pulling support from PNC.
Voters complain about the leadership of the PNC and its failure to unite the disparate factions in sharp contrast with PPP which appears united. The PNC leader, Aubrey Norton, is struggling to hold the party’s base losing support to the AFC leader Nigel Hughes, and Norton has no traction outside the party base. Indians have not forgotten what transpired from the no confidence motion of December 2018 and the 2020 election and will not vote for PNC or APNU.
Many voters once aligned with the opposition does not see hope in it returning to office. The PNC is barely holding on in traditionally safe territory. The PNC is too divided with four factions and with several inexperienced individuals in its line up. Also, PNC has not offered credible and workable policies. It is a mountainous task for PNC or APNU to retain its support from 2020 especially with Norton as Presidential candidate; it will lose seats to PPP and AFC.
Voters of all parties aren’t pleased with the main opposition party and will like to see the emergence of another force. A third force under an acceptable leader could do very well. Some names mentioned include Chris Ram, Ravi Dev, Azruddin Mohamed, Glenn Lall, among others. But none of them has shown an interest to enter into the political fray. Many among the lower classes plead to charitable donors Glenn Lall and Azruddin Mohamed to start a new political movement. Both have a large following, but whether it can transfer into political support in a racially polarized electorate is another matter. At any rate, neither one is showing interest in politics. Azruddin is deeply involved in charity work and Glenn Lall is occupied with his media.
For now, the incumbent PPP holds an advantage over the opposition primarily because voters trust it more than the opposition to manage the economy and to protect democratic gains. Macroeconomic conditions are improving, boosting PPP’s chances. The economy has been improving since 2021 although not everyone is benefiting equally from the oil revenues. Several competent contractors also complain about not getting contracts which they say have been doled out to inexperienced, unqualified companies or individuals. Voters are also not pleased with the performance of several Ministers and would not like to see them again in the new line up for the 2025 elections. The opposition has not been able to exploit preceding and other complaints.
