In an opinion survey conducted for NACTA in late January by eminent pollster (psephologist) Dr Vishnu Bisram on popular support for political parties and politicians, the PPP and Irfaan Ali are far more appealing to voters than the PNC (APNU-led coalition parliamentary) opposition, and if an election were called now, the PPP would triumph retaining office. The latest poll findings show no voter gain for the opposition under present leadership. However, there is rising apathy among voters for both major parties in their traditional base, and they could hold the balance of power if they vote and do so strategically. However, many said they will not vote again.
There are significant numbers of middle of the road, floating, unaligned voters who voted in 2020 but said neither major ‘party’ was attractive to them in the June 2023 local government election, and they stayed home. And the two parties are still not attractive to them for next year’s general elections constitutionally due by November 2025. A new political party could capture their vote although several said, “me done with voting”, disappointed over what they describe as “broken promises” of politicians from both sides of the aisle and other complaints. Some of the voters who have lost confidence in government said they can’t make ends meet because of rising prices of basic foods and construction materials to repair or build new homes and buildings.
According to the latest poll’s findings from January, voter apathy has increased when compared with earlier polls conducted in October and June of last year and from voter turnout of 2020 general elections. The findings also revealed that voters disgruntled with the incumbent party repose no confidence in the opposition parties. In fact, the opposition PNC (APNU+AFC) is experiencing greater apathy than the ruling party and the minor parties are not capturing voter discontent. Respondents in the latest survey said that the opposition has been ineffective in its campaign against the government. The main problem with the PNC is political leadership that is saddled with high ‘unfavourability’ ratings and weak presence nationally even in its traditional strongholds. Many of the party’s supporters reject its leadership and have been clamoring for a Congress, overdue since last December, to choose a new executive.
The PPP does not face the kind of problems being experienced by the PNC. The leader of the PPP, General Secretary Bharrat Jagdeo, and the government leader President Irfaan Ali have had a dominant presence all of the country including in PNC strongholds in development work and doling out patronage. Irfaan is found to be far more popular with lower disapproval rating than Opposition Leader Aubrey Norton. If the choice is between the two, Irfaan wins.
Although the PPP faces apathy challenge in its base with significant disenchantment, electorally, the PPP is not losing ground to the opposition, and the combined opposition is not gaining support over the ruling party. The poll’s findings reveal that more voters still prefer the PPP over the opposition. And the PPP is projected to pick up seats from the opposition. But some eighteen months till the next election is a long way to go and voter support could shift by then. Other new parties could also be in the mix by then.
This qualitative report of national views is based on interviews conducted in late January with 490 respondents to reflect the demographics of the population and analyzed at 95% Significant Confidence level with a margin of error of 4%.
The survey was conducted by Dr. Vishnu Bisram, a veteran political analyst and senior journalist and commentator.
